Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 33.893916 36.586051 39.539697 43.050161 47.148614 51.833941 57.673128
2025-09-28 30.130795 33.551517 37.527007 42.576780 48.957896 56.961903 68.138131
2025-10-05 29.249921 33.378411 38.404658 45.159724 54.326366 66.905101 86.727414
2025-10-12 27.451105 31.808938 37.273576 44.896839 55.765255 71.699002 99.367023
2025-10-19 26.343197 30.953426 36.894402 45.480978 58.333939 78.517879 117.611757
2025-10-26 25.701706 30.611857 37.111762 46.849805 62.194360 88.208674 145.797095
2025-11-02 24.761019 29.782778 36.562816 46.998690 64.113593 95.011784 172.201962
2025-11-09 23.402068 28.293613 34.966973 45.388676 62.860030 95.553389 183.529997
2025-11-16 22.174777 26.916870 33.438908 43.740924 61.316751 95.183295 192.340777
2025-11-23 21.744346 26.614323 33.426771 44.450941 63.987056 104.193336 239.073815
2025-11-30 21.140273 26.031177 32.958188 44.370981 65.189766 110.343509 284.516923
2025-12-07 20.456519 25.300067 32.222617 43.781216 65.332931 114.038356 326.070390
2025-12-14 19.315695 23.970889 30.671642 41.978237 63.433019 113.588986 357.042285
2025-12-21 18.587213 23.207372 29.942586 41.525487 64.225889 120.839924 469.329631
2025-12-28 18.596148 23.505699 30.850759 43.994770 71.626987 151.886664 1295.005782
2026-01-04 18.020083 22.900620 30.286540 43.743679 72.983801 164.826289 3171.820302
2026-01-11 17.656021 22.591128 30.169357 44.301551 76.386069 189.074854 NaN
2026-01-18 17.459048 22.520812 30.430862 45.607853 82.041939 231.800737 NaN
2026-01-25 17.066568 22.126988 30.123180 45.749855 84.688491 264.544507 NaN
2026-02-01 16.413947 21.300939 29.039025 44.213416 82.294543 262.363243 NaN
2026-02-08 15.792850 20.504169 27.971458 42.639003 79.574267 256.234899 NaN
2026-02-15 15.586963 20.350111 27.992591 43.317663 83.627523 308.838076 NaN
2026-02-22 15.271425 20.009138 27.670666 43.241252 85.404162 349.673357 NaN